Report · Q3 2026 edition, refreshed 9 September 2026 · INT.03 Buy · 10 min read
Enthusiast Car Price Report — Q3 2026
Which enthusiast cars carry a rising 12-month trend, which a falling one, and which segments lead and trail, aggregated from all 201 cars in carpriceindex's registry, EU and US.
Across the 201 cars in carpriceindex's registry, 122 carry a rising 12-month trend estimate, 74 a falling one and 5 a flat one. The European mean is +0.7% and the median +1.4%; the US baseline, carried on the 159 cars sold there, averages +0.6%. These are the index's own per-car trend estimates, aggregated. They are not transaction data. The first edition of this report, built on the 77-car index of July 2026, read a flat market: a −0.07% mean, 38 cars up and 39 down. The 201-car registry does not split that way: 61% of its trend estimates point up.
01 — The quarter in one line
If you only take one number from this report, take the split: 122 up, 74 down, 5 flat. A mean of +0.7% built from that split is not a market moving as one. It means the index expects money to leave one end of the enthusiast spectrum and arrive at the other, and the segment table says which ends: modern classics lead at +3.0% with 43 of 48 cars up, saloons / estates trail at −1.9% with 20 of 29 down. That is a spread of 4.9 points between the best and worst segments in a registry whose mean is under one point. Averages hide; spreads reveal.
The registry's status labels matter here. All 201 cars carry the "editorial estimate" status, and carpriceindex's September market note records that none of the 201 prices moved in its 1 September 2026 re-check against live German listings, with 14 figures flagged as under review. The trend estimates below are the index's reading of each car's twelve months, not a measured price change between two dated snapshots. Treat them as the index does: a direction with a size, cross-checked, and open to correction.
02 — What's rising
Porsche 911 Turbo 996 leads the registry at +7.9% on a European baseline of €82,000, and the top 5 risers all sit at +5.5% or better. By segment the five are 4 modern classics, 1 hot hatches.
| Car | 12-mo trend | EU baseline | Segment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 Turbo 996 | +7.9% | €82,000 | Modern classics |
| Lancia Thema 8.32 Y9 (series 1+2) | +5.9% | €27,000 | Modern classics |
| Volkswagen Corrado VR6 53i | +5.9% | €18,000 | Modern classics |
| Peugeot 306 GTI-6 Ph2/Ph3 | +5.6% | €9,500 | Hot hatches |
| Honda Integra Type R DC2 | +5.5% | €42,500 | Modern classics |
The pattern behind the segment table is a supply story. When there is no modern substitute, condition and documentation set the price, and the cleanest cars pull the whole segment up with them. That is what a +3.0% segment mean against a +0.7% registry mean looks like, and it is the segment with the largest number of rising cars in the registry.
"43 of the 48 modern classics in the registry carry a rising trend. The index is paying for the things nobody makes anymore."
03 — What's cooling
The sharpest decliner is Skoda Octavia RS Mk2 (1Z) pre-facelift at −8.3% on a European baseline of €5,500. The bottom 5 all sit at −5.6% or worse, and by segment they are 3 saloons / estates, 1 hot hatches, 1 muscle & v8.
| Car | 12-mo trend | EU baseline | Segment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skoda Octavia RS Mk2 (1Z) pre-facelift | −8.3% | €5,500 | Saloons / Estates |
| Chevrolet Corvette Z06 C8 | −8.2% | €145,000 | Muscle & V8 |
| Hyundai Ioniq 5 N NE1 N | −6.7% | €56,000 | Saloons / Estates |
| Tesla Model S 75D Pre-Raven | −5.7% | €25,000 | Saloons / Estates |
| Suzuki Swift Sport ZC32S | −5.6% | €8,500 | Hot hatches |
Plentiful supply, a successor on sale, lease returns arriving: the falling end of the registry is where a three-to-five-year-old example cannot ask what it once did. For a buyer, cooling is opportunity. A falling car is cheaper to buy and, as the true cost calculator will show, often more expensive to own; a rising car inverts the trade.
04 — The segments
| Segment | Cars | Mean 12-mo trend | Up / down / flat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modern classics | 48 | +3.0% | 43 / 4 / 1 |
| Supercars | 20 | +1.3% | 14 / 6 / 0 |
| Sports cars | 37 | +0.9% | 27 / 9 / 1 |
| Hot hatches | 38 | 0.0% | 19 / 19 / 0 |
| Grand tourers | 20 | −0.1% | 8 / 11 / 1 |
| Muscle & V8 | 9 | −0.8% | 4 / 5 / 0 |
| Saloons / Estates | 29 | −1.9% | 7 / 20 / 2 |
By segment the twelve-month EU means line up as modern classics +3.0% (n=48), supercars +1.3% (n=20), sports cars +0.9% (n=37), hot hatches 0.0% (n=38), grand tourers −0.1% (n=20), muscle & v8 −0.8% (n=9), saloons / estates −1.9% (n=29). The largest segment, modern classics at 48 cars, sits at +3.0%. Everything at the top trades on scarcity; everything at the bottom trades on depreciation curves that have not finished yet.
05 — How to use this
These baselines are asking-price editorial estimates, not transaction data; the registry's European medians run from €5,500 to €310,000 with a median of €42,000, and they describe where sensible listings cluster, not what any specific chassis is worth. Before you make an offer, open the car's page on carpriceindex ↗ for the current EU and US baselines, the status label and its date, and the condition notes that move them.
Two companion pieces close the loop. If a listing looks cheap against its baseline, our guide to reading a used sports car ad covers why cheap usually has a reason. And since purchase price is only the entry fee, run the car through the true cost calculator before you commit: a falling-knife saloon at a bargain price can still out-cost a riser once fuel, tyres, insurance and depreciation are on the table.
Method: computed from carpriceindex's registry file data.js (edition September 2026) on 2026-09-09 by _build/refresh-car-price-report.ps1 in the hub repository; 201 rows, 41 brands; rule: each car's trend12 field is the index's 12-month trend estimate for its European (German-market) median asking price; up means above zero, down below, flat exactly zero; segment and registry figures are plain means; the US figures use the na.trend12 field on the 159 cars the index prices there; the five biggest movers each way are ranked on trend12 with ties broken alphabetically. Status on every row: editorial estimate (the index's own label). First edition 20 July 2026 on 77 cars; recomputed 9 September 2026 on 201.
